Journal article
H. Kolus, D. Huntzinger, C. Schwalm, J. Fisher, N. McKay, Yuanyuan Fang, A. Michalak, K. Schaefer, Yaxing Wei, B. Poulter, J. Mao, N. Parazoo, Xiaoying Shi
Scientific Reports, 2019
Scientific Reports, 2019
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APA
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Kolus, H., Huntzinger, D., Schwalm, C., Fisher, J., McKay, N., Fang, Y., … Shi, X. (2019). Land carbon models underestimate the severity and duration of drought’s impact on plant productivity. Scientific Reports.
Chicago/Turabian
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Kolus, H., D. Huntzinger, C. Schwalm, J. Fisher, N. McKay, Yuanyuan Fang, A. Michalak, et al. “Land Carbon Models Underestimate the Severity and Duration of Drought’s Impact on Plant Productivity.” Scientific Reports (2019).
MLA
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Kolus, H., et al. “Land Carbon Models Underestimate the Severity and Duration of Drought’s Impact on Plant Productivity.” Scientific Reports, 2019.
BibTeX Click to copy
@article{h2019a,
title = {Land carbon models underestimate the severity and duration of drought’s impact on plant productivity},
year = {2019},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
author = {Kolus, H. and Huntzinger, D. and Schwalm, C. and Fisher, J. and McKay, N. and Fang, Yuanyuan and Michalak, A. and Schaefer, K. and Wei, Yaxing and Poulter, B. and Mao, J. and Parazoo, N. and Shi, Xiaoying}
}
Abstract
The ability to accurately predict ecosystem drought response and recovery is necessary to produce reliable forecasts of land carbon uptake and future climate. Using a suite of models from the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP), we assessed modeled net primary productivity (NPP) response to, and recovery from, drought events against a benchmark derived from tree ring observations between 1948 and 2008 across forested regions of the US and Europe. We find short lag times (0–6 months) between climate anomalies and modeled NPP response. Although models accurately simulate the direction of drought legacy effects (i.e. NPP decreases), projected effects are approximately four times shorter and four times weaker than observations suggest. This discrepancy between observed and simulated vegetation recovery from drought reveals a potential critical model deficiency. Since productivity is a crucial component of the land carbon balance, models that underestimate drought recovery time could overestimate predictions of future land carbon sink strength and, consequently, underestimate forecasts of atmospheric CO2.